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Zamalek SC vs El Dakhleya — Premier League 2018

Zamalek SC
Zamalek SC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
El Dakhleya
El Dakhleya
1/5/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Cairo International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Zamalek SC57%
×Draw24%
El Dakhleya18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zamalek SC
1.68
El Dakhleya
0.83

Zamalek SC creates 102% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 51 away

creates per match

Zamalek SC
1.84
El Dakhleya
0.88

allows per match

Zamalek SC
0.78
El Dakhleya
1.51

finishing

Zamalek SC+0.00on par
El Dakhleya+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamalek SC ↓

El Dakhleya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Zamalek SC or draw
82%
Zamalek SC or El Dakhleya
76%
Draw or El Dakhleya
43%

Winning margin

Zamalek SC wins by 2+
32%
El Dakhleya wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Zamalek SC 1+ goals
81%
Zamalek SC 2+ goals
50%
Zamalek SC 3+ goals
24%
El Dakhleya 1+ goals
56%
El Dakhleya 2+ goals
20%
El Dakhleya 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zamalek SC (draw refunded)
76%
El Dakhleya (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamalek SC at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.78 · 129 matches

El Dakhleya away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamalek SC attack 1.84 + El Dakhleya defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.68

El Dakhleya attack 0.88 + Zamalek SC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Zamalek SC scores more
57%
level
24%
El Dakhleya scores more
18%

Zamalek SC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Zamalek SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zamalek SC vs El Dakhleya

Zamalek SC and El Dakhleya drew 1-1 in Premier League on January 5, 2023.

The match was played at Cairo International Stadium in Cairo.