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Zamalek SC vs Dekedaha — CAF Champions League 2019

Zamalek SC
Zamalek SC
FT
6 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dekedaha
Dekedaha
Mahmoud Abdel Aziz 85'
Mahmoud Alaa 78' (pen)
Shikabala 73', 66'
Mostafa Mohamed 52', 25'
8/24/2019CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Preliminary RoundBorg El Arab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Zamalek SC86%
×Draw9%
Dekedaha5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zamalek SC
3.38
Dekedaha
0.71

Zamalek SC creates 376% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 3 away

creates per match

Zamalek SC
2.10
Dekedaha
0.67

allows per match

Zamalek SC
0.75
Dekedaha
4.67

finishing

Zamalek SC+0.00on par
Dekedaha+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamalek SC ↓

Dekedaha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–14%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–17%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Zamalek SC or draw
95%
Zamalek SC or Dekedaha
91%
Draw or Dekedaha
14%

Winning margin

Zamalek SC wins by 2+
69%
Dekedaha wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Zamalek SC 1+ goals
96%
Zamalek SC 2+ goals
84%
Zamalek SC 3+ goals
64%
Dekedaha 1+ goals
51%
Dekedaha 2+ goals
16%
Dekedaha 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Zamalek SC (draw refunded)
95%
Dekedaha (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamalek SC at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.75 · 20 matches

Dekedaha away — creates 0.67, concedes 4.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamalek SC attack 2.10 + Dekedaha defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.38

Dekedaha attack 0.67 + Zamalek SC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Zamalek SC scores more
86%
level
9%
Dekedaha scores more
5%

Zamalek SC at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Zamalek SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
Mostafa Mohamed
52'
Mostafa Mohamed
66'
Shikabala
73'
Shikabala
78'
Mahmoud AlaaPenalty
85'
Mahmoud Abdel Aziz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zamalek SC vs Dekedaha

Zamalek SC beat Dekedaha 6-0 in CAF Champions League on August 24, 2019.

Goals: Mostafa Mohamed (25', 52'), Shikabala (66', 73'), Mahmoud Alaa (78' pen), Mahmoud Abdel Aziz (85').

The match was played at Borg El Arab Stadium in Borg El Arab.