Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zamalek SC vs AL Mokawloon — Premier League 2018

Zamalek SC
Zamalek SC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
AL Mokawloon
AL Mokawloon
10/19/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5WE Al-Ahly Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Zamalek SC49%
×Draw27%
AL Mokawloon24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zamalek SC
1.42
AL Mokawloon
0.89

Zamalek SC creates 60% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 17 away

creates per match

Zamalek SC
1.84
AL Mokawloon
1.00

allows per match

Zamalek SC
0.78
AL Mokawloon
1.00

finishing

Zamalek SC+0.00on par
AL Mokawloon+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamalek SC ↓

AL Mokawloon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Zamalek SC or draw
76%
Zamalek SC or AL Mokawloon
73%
Draw or AL Mokawloon
51%

Winning margin

Zamalek SC wins by 2+
24%
AL Mokawloon wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zamalek SC 1+ goals
76%
Zamalek SC 2+ goals
41%
Zamalek SC 3+ goals
17%
AL Mokawloon 1+ goals
59%
AL Mokawloon 2+ goals
22%
AL Mokawloon 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Zamalek SC (draw refunded)
68%
AL Mokawloon (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamalek SC at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.78 · 129 matches

AL Mokawloon away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamalek SC attack 1.84 + AL Mokawloon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

AL Mokawloon attack 1.00 + Zamalek SC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zamalek SC scores more
49%
level
27%
AL Mokawloon scores more
24%

Zamalek SC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zamalek SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Zamalek SC 2–1 AL Mokawloon

Zamalek SC beat AL Mokawloon 2-1 in Premier League on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at WE Al-Ahly Stadium in Cairo.