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Žalgiris II vs Dainava — 1 Lyga 2026

Žalgiris II
Žalgiris II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Dainava
Dainava
J. Sylvestr 77'
V. Piliukaitis 32'
M. Mikulenas 23'
P. Olugbogi 67', 4'
10/17/20221 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 26Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Žalgiris II35%
×Draw23%
Dainava42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žalgiris II
1.56
Dainava
1.73

Dainava creates 11% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 45 away

creates per match

Žalgiris II
1.99
Dainava
1.53

allows per match

Žalgiris II
1.92
Dainava
1.13

finishing

Žalgiris II+0.00on par
Dainava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 64Under: 3664%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žalgiris II ↓

Dainava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Žalgiris II or draw
58%
Žalgiris II or Dainava
77%
Draw or Dainava
65%

Winning margin

Žalgiris II wins by 2+
17%
Dainava wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Žalgiris II 1+ goals
79%
Žalgiris II 2+ goals
46%
Žalgiris II 3+ goals
21%
Dainava 1+ goals
82%
Dainava 2+ goals
52%
Dainava 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Žalgiris II (draw refunded)
45%
Dainava (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žalgiris II at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.92 · 93 matches

Dainava away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žalgiris II attack 1.99 + Dainava defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.56

Dainava attack 1.53 + Žalgiris II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Žalgiris II scores more
35%
level
23%
Dainava scores more
42%

Dainava at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dainava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
P. Olugbogi
23'
M. Mikulenas
32'
V. Piliukaitis
67'
P. Olugbogi
77'
J. Sylvestr

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Žalgiris II 3–2 Dainava

Žalgiris II beat Dainava 3-2 in 1 Lyga on October 17, 2022.

Goals: P. Olugbogi (4', 67'), M. Mikulenas (23'), V. Piliukaitis (32'), J. Sylvestr (77').

The match was played at Vilniaus LFF stadionas in Vilnius.