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Žalgiris II vs Banga II — 1 Lyga 2026

Žalgiris II
Žalgiris II
FT
4 – 0
Banga II
Banga II
7/7/20211 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 14Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Žalgiris II51%
×Draw22%
Banga II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žalgiris II
1.99
Banga II
1.42

Žalgiris II creates 40% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 43 away

creates per match

Žalgiris II
1.85
Banga II
0.95

allows per match

Žalgiris II
1.88
Banga II
2.12

finishing

Žalgiris II+0.00on par
Banga II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žalgiris II ↓

Banga II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Žalgiris II or draw
72%
Žalgiris II or Banga II
78%
Draw or Banga II
49%

Winning margin

Žalgiris II wins by 2+
29%
Banga II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Žalgiris II 1+ goals
86%
Žalgiris II 2+ goals
59%
Žalgiris II 3+ goals
32%
Banga II 1+ goals
76%
Banga II 2+ goals
41%
Banga II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Žalgiris II (draw refunded)
65%
Banga II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žalgiris II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.88 · 88 matches

Banga II away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.12 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žalgiris II attack 1.85 + Banga II defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.99

Banga II attack 0.95 + Žalgiris II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Žalgiris II scores more
51%
level
22%
Banga II scores more
28%

Žalgiris II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Žalgiris II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Žalgiris II 4–0 Banga II

Žalgiris II beat Banga II 4-0 in 1 Lyga on July 7, 2021.

The match was played at Vilniaus LFF stadionas in Vilnius.