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Žalgiris II vs Banga — 1 Lyga 2026

Žalgiris II
Žalgiris II
FT
0 – 3
Banga
Banga
P. Lotuzys 74'
V. Pocevicius 19'
D. Lukosius 15'
8/24/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 21Vilniaus LFF stadionas (Vilnius)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Žalgiris II30%
×Draw22%
Banga48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žalgiris II
1.50
Banga
1.93

Banga creates 29% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 17 away

creates per match

Žalgiris II
1.99
Banga
1.94

allows per match

Žalgiris II
1.92
Banga
1.00

finishing

Žalgiris II+0.00on par
Banga+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 66Under: 3466%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 66No: 3466%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žalgiris II ↓

Banga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Žalgiris II or draw
52%
Žalgiris II or Banga
78%
Draw or Banga
70%

Winning margin

Žalgiris II wins by 2+
14%
Banga wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Žalgiris II 1+ goals
78%
Žalgiris II 2+ goals
44%
Žalgiris II 3+ goals
19%
Banga 1+ goals
85%
Banga 2+ goals
57%
Banga 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Žalgiris II (draw refunded)
39%
Banga (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žalgiris II at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.92 · 93 matches

Banga away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žalgiris II attack 1.99 + Banga defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Banga attack 1.94 + Žalgiris II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Žalgiris II scores more
30%
level
22%
Banga scores more
48%

Banga at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Banga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
D. Lukosius
19'
V. Pocevicius
74'
P. Lotuzys

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Žalgiris II 0–3 Banga

Banga beat Žalgiris II 3-0 in 1 Lyga on August 24, 2019.

Goals: D. Lukosius (15'), V. Pocevicius (19'), P. Lotuzys (74').

The match was played at Vilniaus LFF stadionas (Vilnius).