Zalaegerszegi TE II 3–2 Kelen: Result & Stats

Zalaegerszegi TE II

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Kelen

5/21/2023

NB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 38ZTE-Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Zalaegerszegi TE II44%

×Draw23%

Kelen33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zalaegerszegi TE IIExpected goals in this matchKelen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.52

Zalaegerszegi TE II

1.77

Kelen

1.52

Zalaegerszegi TE II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

1.70

creates per match

1.16

1.89

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Zalaegerszegi TE II

1.70

Kelen

1.16

allows per match

Zalaegerszegi TE II

1.89

Kelen

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zalaegerszegi TE II+0.00on par

Kelen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zalaegerszegi TE II ↓

Kelen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Zalaegerszegi TE II or draw

67%

Zalaegerszegi TE II or Kelen

77%

Draw or Kelen

56%

Winning margin

Zalaegerszegi TE II wins by 2+

23%

Kelen wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Zalaegerszegi TE II 1+ goals

83%

Zalaegerszegi TE II 2+ goals

53%

Zalaegerszegi TE II 3+ goals

26%

Kelen 1+ goals

78%

Kelen 2+ goals

45%

Kelen 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Zalaegerszegi TE II (draw refunded)

57%

Kelen (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zalaegerszegi TE II at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.89 · 57 matches

Kelen away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.84 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zalaegerszegi TE II attack 1.70 + Kelen defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.77

Kelen attack 1.16 + Zalaegerszegi TE II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zalaegerszegi TE II scores more

44%

level

23%

Kelen scores more

33%

Zalaegerszegi TE II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zalaegerszegi TE II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff