Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zalaegerszegi TE II vs Dorogi FC — NB III - Northwest 2019

Zalaegerszegi TE II
Zalaegerszegi TE II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dorogi FC
Dorogi FC
7/29/2023NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 1ZTE-Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zalaegerszegi TE II29%
×Draw25%
Dorogi FC46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zalaegerszegi TE II
1.16
Dorogi FC
1.55

Dorogi FC creates 34% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Zalaegerszegi TE II
0.73
Dorogi FC
1.38

allows per match

Zalaegerszegi TE II
1.73
Dorogi FC
1.58

finishing

Zalaegerszegi TE II+0.00on par
Dorogi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zalaegerszegi TE II ↓

Dorogi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Zalaegerszegi TE II or draw
54%
Zalaegerszegi TE II or Dorogi FC
75%
Draw or Dorogi FC
71%

Winning margin

Zalaegerszegi TE II wins by 2+
11%
Dorogi FC wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Zalaegerszegi TE II 1+ goals
69%
Zalaegerszegi TE II 2+ goals
32%
Zalaegerszegi TE II 3+ goals
11%
Dorogi FC 1+ goals
79%
Dorogi FC 2+ goals
46%
Dorogi FC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Zalaegerszegi TE II (draw refunded)
38%
Dorogi FC (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zalaegerszegi TE II at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Dorogi FC away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.58 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zalaegerszegi TE II attack 0.73 + Dorogi FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.16

Dorogi FC attack 1.38 + Zalaegerszegi TE II defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zalaegerszegi TE II scores more
29%
level
25%
Dorogi FC scores more
46%

Dorogi FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dorogi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northwest: Zalaegerszegi TE II 1–2 Dorogi FC

Dorogi FC beat Zalaegerszegi TE II 2-1 in NB III - Northwest on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at ZTE-Aréna in Zalaegerszeg.