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Zakho vs Karbala — Iraqi League 2020

Zakho
Zakho
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Karbala
Karbala
10/5/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 3Zakho International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Zakho49%
×Draw29%
Karbala23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zakho
1.31
Karbala
0.80

Zakho creates 64% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 58 away

creates per match

Zakho
1.21
Karbala
0.81

allows per match

Zakho
0.79
Karbala
1.41

finishing

Zakho+0.00on par
Karbala+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zakho ↓

Karbala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Zakho or draw
77%
Zakho or Karbala
71%
Draw or Karbala
51%

Winning margin

Zakho wins by 2+
23%
Karbala wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zakho 1+ goals
73%
Zakho 2+ goals
38%
Zakho 3+ goals
14%
Karbala 1+ goals
55%
Karbala 2+ goals
19%
Karbala 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zakho (draw refunded)
68%
Karbala (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zakho at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.79 · 107 matches

Karbala away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.41 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zakho attack 1.21 + Karbala defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.31

Karbala attack 0.81 + Zakho defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zakho scores more
49%
level
29%
Karbala scores more
23%

Zakho at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zakho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zakho vs Karbala

Zakho beat Karbala 5-0 in Iraqi League on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Zakho International Stadium in Zakho.