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Zakho vs Gharraf — Iraqi League 2025

Zakho
Zakho
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gharraf
Gharraf
A. Attwan 76'
Orinho 55'
2/26/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zakho45%
×Draw28%
Gharraf27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zakho
1.33
Gharraf
0.96

Zakho creates 39% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 19 away

creates per match

Zakho
1.45
Gharraf
1.16

allows per match

Zakho
0.77
Gharraf
1.21

finishing

Zakho+0.00on par
Gharraf+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zakho ↓

Gharraf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Zakho or draw
73%
Zakho or Gharraf
72%
Draw or Gharraf
55%

Winning margin

Zakho wins by 2+
21%
Gharraf wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zakho 1+ goals
74%
Zakho 2+ goals
38%
Zakho 3+ goals
15%
Gharraf 1+ goals
62%
Gharraf 2+ goals
25%
Gharraf 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zakho (draw refunded)
63%
Gharraf (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zakho at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.77 · 31 matches

Gharraf away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zakho attack 1.45 + Gharraf defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.33

Gharraf attack 1.16 + Zakho defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Zakho scores more
45%
level
28%
Gharraf scores more
27%

Zakho at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Zakho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
Orinho
76'
A. Attwan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zakho 2 – 0 Gharraf

Zakho beat Gharraf 2-0 in Iraqi League on February 26, 2026.

Goals: Orinho (55'), A. Attwan (76').