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Zakho vs Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya — Iraqi League 2020

Zakho
Zakho
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
12/23/2020Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 10Zakho International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Zakho52%
×Draw27%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zakho
1.40
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
0.78

Zakho creates 79% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 22 away

creates per match

Zakho
1.21
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
0.77

allows per match

Zakho
0.79
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
1.59

finishing

Zakho+0.00on par
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zakho ↓

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Zakho or draw
79%
Zakho or Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
73%
Draw or Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
48%

Winning margin

Zakho wins by 2+
25%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Zakho 1+ goals
75%
Zakho 2+ goals
41%
Zakho 3+ goals
17%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 1+ goals
54%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 2+ goals
18%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Zakho (draw refunded)
71%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zakho at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.79 · 107 matches

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zakho attack 1.21 + Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya attack 0.77 + Zakho defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Zakho scores more
52%
level
27%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya scores more
21%

Zakho at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Zakho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zakho vs Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya

Zakho beat Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 1-0 in Iraqi League on December 23, 2020.

The match was played at Zakho International Stadium in Zakho.