Zakho 0–2 Al Shorta: Result & Stats | Iraqi League

Zakho

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Al Shorta

A. Saleh 90'

Orinho 30' (OG)

3/26/2026

Iraqi League · Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Zakho28%

×Draw26%

Al Shorta45%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZakhoExpected goals in this matchAl Shorta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.44

Zakho

1.08

Al Shorta

1.44

Al Shorta creates 33% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 27 away

1.46

creates per match

2.00

0.88

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

Zakho

1.46

Al Shorta

2.00

allows per match

Zakho

0.88

Al Shorta

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zakho+0.00on par

Al Shorta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zakho ↓

Al Shorta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Zakho or draw

55%

Zakho or Al Shorta

74%

Draw or Al Shorta

72%

Winning margin

Zakho wins by 2+

11%

Al Shorta wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Zakho 1+ goals

66%

Zakho 2+ goals

29%

Zakho 3+ goals

10%

Al Shorta 1+ goals

76%

Al Shorta 2+ goals

42%

Al Shorta 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Zakho (draw refunded)

38%

Al Shorta (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zakho at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.88 · 24 matches

Al Shorta away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.70 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zakho attack 1.46 + Al Shorta defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.08

Al Shorta attack 2.00 + Zakho defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Zakho scores more

28%

level

26%

Al Shorta scores more

45%

Al Shorta at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

OrinhoOwn goal

90'

A. Saleh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff