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Zakho vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya — Iraqi League 2025

Zakho
Zakho
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
A. Yasin 77', 33'
6/28/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 37Zakho International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Zakho45%
×Draw28%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zakho
1.34
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
0.98

Zakho creates 37% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 33 away

creates per match

Zakho
1.56
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.18

allows per match

Zakho
0.78
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.12

finishing

Zakho+0.00on par
Al Quwa Al Jawiya+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zakho ↓

Al Quwa Al Jawiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Zakho or draw
73%
Zakho or Al Quwa Al Jawiya
72%
Draw or Al Quwa Al Jawiya
55%

Winning margin

Zakho wins by 2+
21%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zakho 1+ goals
74%
Zakho 2+ goals
39%
Zakho 3+ goals
15%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1+ goals
62%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2+ goals
26%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zakho (draw refunded)
62%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zakho at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.78 · 36 matches

Al Quwa Al Jawiya away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zakho attack 1.56 + Al Quwa Al Jawiya defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.34

Al Quwa Al Jawiya attack 1.18 + Zakho defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Zakho scores more
45%
level
28%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya scores more
27%

Zakho at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Zakho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
A. Yasin
77'
A. Yasin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Zakho 2–0 Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Zakho beat Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2-0 in Iraqi League on June 28, 2025.

Goals: A. Yasin (33', 77').

The match was played at Zakho International Stadium in Zakho.