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Zakho vs Al Minaa Basra — Iraqi League 2025

Zakho
Zakho
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Al Minaa Basra
Al Minaa Basra
D. López 45'
Dione 37'
C. Abogo 26'
Karrar Lateef 62'
4/30/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 25Zakho International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Zakho52%
×Draw27%
Al Minaa Basra21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zakho
1.44
Al Minaa Basra
0.80

Zakho creates 80% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 36 away

creates per match

Zakho
1.56
Al Minaa Basra
0.83

allows per match

Zakho
0.78
Al Minaa Basra
1.31

finishing

Zakho+0.00on par
Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zakho ↓

Al Minaa Basra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Zakho or draw
79%
Zakho or Al Minaa Basra
73%
Draw or Al Minaa Basra
48%

Winning margin

Zakho wins by 2+
26%
Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Zakho 1+ goals
76%
Zakho 2+ goals
42%
Zakho 3+ goals
18%
Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals
55%
Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals
19%
Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zakho (draw refunded)
71%
Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zakho at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.78 · 36 matches

Al Minaa Basra away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zakho attack 1.56 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.44

Al Minaa Basra attack 0.83 + Zakho defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Zakho scores more
52%
level
27%
Al Minaa Basra scores more
21%

Zakho at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Zakho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
C. Abogo
37'
Dione
45'
D. López
62'
Karrar Lateef

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zakho vs Al Minaa Basra

Zakho beat Al Minaa Basra 3-1 in Iraqi League on April 30, 2024.

Goals: C. Abogo (26'), Dione (37'), D. López (45'), Karrar Lateef (62').

The match was played at Zakho International Stadium in Zakho.