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Zakho vs Al Minaa Basra — Iraqi League 2020

Zakho
Zakho
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Minaa Basra
Al Minaa Basra
2/19/2022Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 22Zakho International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Zakho48%
×Draw29%
Al Minaa Basra24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zakho
1.30
Al Minaa Basra
0.82

Zakho creates 59% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 93 away

creates per match

Zakho
1.21
Al Minaa Basra
0.86

allows per match

Zakho
0.79
Al Minaa Basra
1.40

finishing

Zakho+0.00on par
Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zakho ↓

Al Minaa Basra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Zakho or draw
76%
Zakho or Al Minaa Basra
71%
Draw or Al Minaa Basra
52%

Winning margin

Zakho wins by 2+
22%
Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zakho 1+ goals
73%
Zakho 2+ goals
37%
Zakho 3+ goals
14%
Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals
56%
Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals
20%
Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zakho (draw refunded)
67%
Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zakho at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.79 · 107 matches

Al Minaa Basra away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.40 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zakho attack 1.21 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.30

Al Minaa Basra attack 0.86 + Zakho defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Zakho scores more
48%
level
29%
Al Minaa Basra scores more
24%

Zakho at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zakho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zakho vs Al Minaa Basra

Zakho and Al Minaa Basra drew 0-0 in Iraqi League on February 19, 2022.

The match was played at Zakho International Stadium in Zakho.