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Zakho vs Al Karkh — Iraqi League 2025

Zakho
Zakho
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Karkh
Al Karkh
D. Echeta 11'
Y. Hamoud 71'
12/31/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Zakho44%
×Draw27%
Al Karkh29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zakho
1.34
Al Karkh
1.03

Zakho creates 30% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 40 away

creates per match

Zakho
1.56
Al Karkh
1.27

allows per match

Zakho
0.79
Al Karkh
1.13

finishing

Zakho+0.00on par
Al Karkh+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zakho ↓

Al Karkh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Zakho or draw
71%
Zakho or Al Karkh
73%
Draw or Al Karkh
56%

Winning margin

Zakho wins by 2+
20%
Al Karkh wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zakho 1+ goals
74%
Zakho 2+ goals
39%
Zakho 3+ goals
15%
Al Karkh 1+ goals
64%
Al Karkh 2+ goals
28%
Al Karkh 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zakho (draw refunded)
60%
Al Karkh (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zakho at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.79 · 39 matches

Al Karkh away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.13 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zakho attack 1.56 + Al Karkh defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.34

Al Karkh attack 1.27 + Zakho defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zakho scores more
44%
level
27%
Al Karkh scores more
29%

Zakho at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zakho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
D. Echeta
38'
N. Al Gahwashi
55'
Orinho
71'
Y. Hamoud

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zakho 1 – 1 Al Karkh

Zakho and Al Karkh drew 1-1 in Iraqi League on December 31, 2025.

Goals: D. Echeta (11'), Y. Hamoud (71').