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Zagorje vs Sava Kranj — 3. SNL - West 2020

Zagorje
Zagorje
FT
1 – 9
Sava Kranj
Sava Kranj
10/3/20203. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 8Mestni stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Zagorje10%
×Draw14%
Sava Kranj76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagorje
0.97
Sava Kranj
2.92

Sava Kranj creates 201% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Zagorje
0.44
Sava Kranj
2.40

allows per match

Zagorje
3.44
Sava Kranj
1.50

finishing

Zagorje+0.00on par
Sava Kranj+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagorje ↓

Sava Kranj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–29%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Zagorje or draw
24%
Zagorje or Sava Kranj
86%
Draw or Sava Kranj
90%

Winning margin

Zagorje wins by 2+
3%
Sava Kranj wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

Zagorje 1+ goals
62%
Zagorje 2+ goals
25%
Zagorje 3+ goals
7%
Sava Kranj 1+ goals
94%
Sava Kranj 2+ goals
78%
Sava Kranj 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Zagorje (draw refunded)
11%
Sava Kranj (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagorje at home — creates 0.44, concedes 3.44 · 9 matches

Sava Kranj away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagorje attack 0.44 + Sava Kranj defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.97

Sava Kranj attack 2.40 + Zagorje defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Zagorje scores more
10%
level
14%
Sava Kranj scores more
76%

Sava Kranj at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Sava Kranj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. SNL - West: Zagorje 1–9 Sava Kranj

Sava Kranj beat Zagorje 9-1 in 3. SNL - West on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Mestni stadion in Zagorje ob Savi.