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Zagorje vs Postojna — 3. SNL - West 2020

Zagorje
Zagorje
FT
0 – 2
Postojna
Postojna
9/19/20203. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 6Mestni stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Zagorje21%
×Draw21%
Postojna59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagorje
1.17
Postojna
2.11

Postojna creates 80% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Zagorje
0.44
Postojna
0.78

allows per match

Zagorje
3.44
Postojna
1.89

finishing

Zagorje+0.00on par
Postojna+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagorje ↓

Postojna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Zagorje or draw
41%
Zagorje or Postojna
79%
Draw or Postojna
79%

Winning margin

Zagorje wins by 2+
8%
Postojna wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Zagorje 1+ goals
69%
Zagorje 2+ goals
33%
Zagorje 3+ goals
11%
Postojna 1+ goals
88%
Postojna 2+ goals
62%
Postojna 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Zagorje (draw refunded)
26%
Postojna (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagorje at home — creates 0.44, concedes 3.44 · 9 matches

Postojna away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagorje attack 0.44 + Postojna defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.17

Postojna attack 0.78 + Zagorje defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Zagorje scores more
21%
level
21%
Postojna scores more
59%

Postojna at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Postojna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zagorje vs Postojna

Postojna beat Zagorje 2-0 in 3. SNL - West on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at Mestni stadion in Zagorje ob Savi.