Zagorets 5–0 Vereya Stara Zagora: Result & Stats

Zagorets

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vereya Stara Zagora

3/4/2023

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 22Stadion Zagorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Zagorets88%

×Draw9%

Vereya Stara Zagora4%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZagoretsExpected goals in this matchVereya Stara Zagora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.37

0.61

Zagorets

3.37

Vereya Stara Zagora

0.61

Zagorets creates 452% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 36 away

2.43

creates per match

0.53

0.70

allows per match

4.31

creates per match

Zagorets

2.43

Vereya Stara Zagora

0.53

allows per match

Zagorets

0.70

Vereya Stara Zagora

4.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zagorets+0.00on par

Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagorets ↓

Vereya Stara Zagora →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–14%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–18%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–011%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (13%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Zagorets or draw

96%

Zagorets or Vereya Stara Zagora

91%

Draw or Vereya Stara Zagora

12%

Winning margin

Zagorets wins by 2+

71%

Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Zagorets 1+ goals

96%

Zagorets 2+ goals

84%

Zagorets 3+ goals

63%

Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals

46%

Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals

13%

Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Zagorets (draw refunded)

96%

Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)

4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagorets at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.70 · 136 matches

Vereya Stara Zagora away — creates 0.53, concedes 4.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagorets attack 2.43 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 4.31 → ÷2 → 3.37

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.53 + Zagorets defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Zagorets scores more

88%

level

9%

Vereya Stara Zagora scores more

4%

Zagorets at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Zagorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff