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Zagorets vs Spartak Plovdiv — Third League - Southeast 2018

Zagorets
Zagorets
FT
2 – 0
Spartak Plovdiv
Spartak Plovdiv
3/8/2025Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 23Stadion Zagorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Zagorets55%
×Draw22%
Spartak Plovdiv23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagorets
1.93
Spartak Plovdiv
1.16

Zagorets creates 66% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 92 away

creates per match

Zagorets
2.43
Spartak Plovdiv
1.62

allows per match

Zagorets
0.70
Spartak Plovdiv
1.42

finishing

Zagorets+0.00on par
Spartak Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagorets ↓

Spartak Plovdiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Zagorets or draw
77%
Zagorets or Spartak Plovdiv
78%
Draw or Spartak Plovdiv
45%

Winning margin

Zagorets wins by 2+
32%
Spartak Plovdiv wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Zagorets 1+ goals
85%
Zagorets 2+ goals
57%
Zagorets 3+ goals
30%
Spartak Plovdiv 1+ goals
69%
Spartak Plovdiv 2+ goals
32%
Spartak Plovdiv 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zagorets (draw refunded)
71%
Spartak Plovdiv (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagorets at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.70 · 136 matches

Spartak Plovdiv away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.42 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagorets attack 2.43 + Spartak Plovdiv defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.93

Spartak Plovdiv attack 1.62 + Zagorets defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Zagorets scores more
55%
level
22%
Spartak Plovdiv scores more
23%

Zagorets at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Zagorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Zagorets 2–0 Spartak Plovdiv

Zagorets beat Spartak Plovdiv 2-0 in Third League - Southeast on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Zagorets in Nova Zagora.