Zagorets 0–2 Sozopol: Result & Stats

Zagorets

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sozopol

11/9/2024

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 16Stadion Zagorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Zagorets60%

×Draw22%

Sozopol18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZagoretsExpected goals in this matchSozopol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.91

Zagorets

1.86

Sozopol

0.91

Zagorets creates 104% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 83 away

2.43

creates per match

1.13

0.70

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Zagorets

2.43

Sozopol

1.13

allows per match

Zagorets

0.70

Sozopol

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zagorets+0.00on par

Sozopol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagorets ↓

Sozopol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Zagorets or draw

82%

Zagorets or Sozopol

78%

Draw or Sozopol

40%

Winning margin

Zagorets wins by 2+

35%

Sozopol wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Zagorets 1+ goals

84%

Zagorets 2+ goals

55%

Zagorets 3+ goals

28%

Sozopol 1+ goals

60%

Sozopol 2+ goals

23%

Sozopol 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Zagorets (draw refunded)

77%

Sozopol (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagorets at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.70 · 136 matches

Sozopol away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.29 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagorets attack 2.43 + Sozopol defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.86

Sozopol attack 1.13 + Zagorets defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Zagorets scores more

60%

level

22%

Sozopol scores more

18%

Zagorets at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Zagorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff