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Zagorets vs Minyor Radnevo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Zagorets
Zagorets
CANC
00:00
Minyor Radnevo
Minyor Radnevo
5/9/2020Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 30Stadion Zagorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Zagorets58%
×Draw23%
Minyor Radnevo18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagorets
1.74
Minyor Radnevo
0.85

Zagorets creates 105% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 27 away

creates per match

Zagorets
2.43
Minyor Radnevo
1.00

allows per match

Zagorets
0.70
Minyor Radnevo
1.04

finishing

Zagorets+0.00on par
Minyor Radnevo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagorets ↓

Minyor Radnevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Zagorets or draw
82%
Zagorets or Minyor Radnevo
77%
Draw or Minyor Radnevo
42%

Winning margin

Zagorets wins by 2+
33%
Minyor Radnevo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Zagorets 1+ goals
82%
Zagorets 2+ goals
52%
Zagorets 3+ goals
25%
Minyor Radnevo 1+ goals
57%
Minyor Radnevo 2+ goals
21%
Minyor Radnevo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zagorets (draw refunded)
76%
Minyor Radnevo (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagorets at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.70 · 136 matches

Minyor Radnevo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagorets attack 2.43 + Minyor Radnevo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.74

Minyor Radnevo attack 1.00 + Zagorets defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Zagorets scores more
58%
level
23%
Minyor Radnevo scores more
18%

Zagorets at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Zagorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zagorets vs Minyor Radnevo — Match Preview

Zagorets face Minyor Radnevo on May 9, 2020 in this Third League - Southeast fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Zagorets host Minyor Radnevo at Stadion Zagorets.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.