Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zagorets vs Levski Krumovgrad — Third League - Southeast 2018

Zagorets
Zagorets
FT
1 – 3
Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
4/21/2022Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 28Stadion Zagorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Zagorets33%
×Draw24%
Levski Krumovgrad43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagorets
1.42
Levski Krumovgrad
1.65

Levski Krumovgrad creates 16% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 17 away

creates per match

Zagorets
2.43
Levski Krumovgrad
2.59

allows per match

Zagorets
0.70
Levski Krumovgrad
0.41

finishing

Zagorets+0.00on par
Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagorets ↓

Levski Krumovgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Zagorets or draw
57%
Zagorets or Levski Krumovgrad
76%
Draw or Levski Krumovgrad
67%

Winning margin

Zagorets wins by 2+
15%
Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Zagorets 1+ goals
76%
Zagorets 2+ goals
41%
Zagorets 3+ goals
17%
Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
81%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
49%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Zagorets (draw refunded)
43%
Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagorets at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.70 · 136 matches

Levski Krumovgrad away — creates 2.59, concedes 0.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagorets attack 2.43 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 1.42

Levski Krumovgrad attack 2.59 + Zagorets defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zagorets scores more
33%
level
24%
Levski Krumovgrad scores more
43%

Levski Krumovgrad at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Levski Krumovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zagorets 1 – 3 Levski Krumovgrad

Levski Krumovgrad beat Zagorets 3-1 in Third League - Southeast on April 21, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Zagorets in Nova Zagora.