Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zagorets vs Karnobat — Third League - Southeast 2018

Zagorets
Zagorets
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Karnobat
Karnobat
9/14/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 7Stadion Zagorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Zagorets75%
×Draw16%
Karnobat9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagorets
2.50
Karnobat
0.74

Zagorets creates 238% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 118 away

creates per match

Zagorets
2.43
Karnobat
0.79

allows per match

Zagorets
0.70
Karnobat
2.58

finishing

Zagorets+0.00on par
Karnobat+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagorets ↓

Karnobat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Zagorets or draw
91%
Zagorets or Karnobat
84%
Draw or Karnobat
25%

Winning margin

Zagorets wins by 2+
53%
Karnobat wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Zagorets 1+ goals
92%
Zagorets 2+ goals
71%
Zagorets 3+ goals
45%
Karnobat 1+ goals
52%
Karnobat 2+ goals
17%
Karnobat 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Zagorets (draw refunded)
89%
Karnobat (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagorets at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.70 · 136 matches

Karnobat away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.58 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagorets attack 2.43 + Karnobat defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.50

Karnobat attack 0.79 + Zagorets defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Zagorets scores more
75%
level
16%
Karnobat scores more
9%

Zagorets at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Zagorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Zagorets 4–0 Karnobat

Zagorets beat Karnobat 4-0 in Third League - Southeast on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Zagorets in Nova Zagora.