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Zagorets vs Izvor Gorski izvor — Third League - Southeast 2018

Zagorets
Zagorets
FT
1 – 0
Izvor Gorski izvor
Izvor Gorski izvor
8/8/2020Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 1Stadion Zagorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Zagorets62%
×Draw22%
Izvor Gorski izvor16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagorets
1.83
Izvor Gorski izvor
0.79

Zagorets creates 132% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 17 away

creates per match

Zagorets
2.43
Izvor Gorski izvor
0.88

allows per match

Zagorets
0.70
Izvor Gorski izvor
1.24

finishing

Zagorets+0.00on par
Izvor Gorski izvor+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagorets ↓

Izvor Gorski izvor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Zagorets or draw
84%
Zagorets or Izvor Gorski izvor
78%
Draw or Izvor Gorski izvor
38%

Winning margin

Zagorets wins by 2+
36%
Izvor Gorski izvor wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Zagorets 1+ goals
84%
Zagorets 2+ goals
54%
Zagorets 3+ goals
28%
Izvor Gorski izvor 1+ goals
55%
Izvor Gorski izvor 2+ goals
19%
Izvor Gorski izvor 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zagorets (draw refunded)
80%
Izvor Gorski izvor (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagorets at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.70 · 136 matches

Izvor Gorski izvor away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagorets attack 2.43 + Izvor Gorski izvor defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.83

Izvor Gorski izvor attack 0.88 + Zagorets defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Zagorets scores more
62%
level
22%
Izvor Gorski izvor scores more
16%

Zagorets at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Zagorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Zagorets 1–0 Izvor Gorski izvor

Zagorets beat Izvor Gorski izvor 1-0 in Third League - Southeast on August 8, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Zagorets in Nova Zagora.