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Zagorets vs Haskovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Zagorets
Zagorets
FT
3 – 0
Haskovo
Haskovo
2/29/2020Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 19Stadion Zagorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Zagorets66%
×Draw20%
Haskovo13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagorets
2.03
Haskovo
0.78

Zagorets creates 160% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 47 away

creates per match

Zagorets
2.43
Haskovo
0.87

allows per match

Zagorets
0.70
Haskovo
1.62

finishing

Zagorets+0.00on par
Haskovo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagorets ↓

Haskovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Zagorets or draw
87%
Zagorets or Haskovo
80%
Draw or Haskovo
34%

Winning margin

Zagorets wins by 2+
41%
Haskovo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Zagorets 1+ goals
87%
Zagorets 2+ goals
60%
Zagorets 3+ goals
33%
Haskovo 1+ goals
54%
Haskovo 2+ goals
18%
Haskovo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Zagorets (draw refunded)
83%
Haskovo (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagorets at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.70 · 136 matches

Haskovo away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.62 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagorets attack 2.43 + Haskovo defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.03

Haskovo attack 0.87 + Zagorets defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Zagorets scores more
66%
level
20%
Haskovo scores more
13%

Zagorets at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Zagorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Zagorets 3–0 Haskovo

Zagorets beat Haskovo 3-0 in Third League - Southeast on February 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Zagorets in Nova Zagora.