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Zagorets vs Gigant Saedinenie — Third League - Southeast 2018

Zagorets
Zagorets
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Gigant Saedinenie
Gigant Saedinenie
11/11/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 17Stadion Zagorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Zagorets61%
×Draw22%
Gigant Saedinenie18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagorets
1.93
Gigant Saedinenie
0.93

Zagorets creates 108% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 136 away

creates per match

Zagorets
2.43
Gigant Saedinenie
1.17

allows per match

Zagorets
0.70
Gigant Saedinenie
1.42

finishing

Zagorets+0.00on par
Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagorets ↓

Gigant Saedinenie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Zagorets or draw
82%
Zagorets or Gigant Saedinenie
78%
Draw or Gigant Saedinenie
39%

Winning margin

Zagorets wins by 2+
36%
Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Zagorets 1+ goals
85%
Zagorets 2+ goals
57%
Zagorets 3+ goals
30%
Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals
61%
Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals
24%
Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zagorets (draw refunded)
77%
Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagorets at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.70 · 136 matches

Gigant Saedinenie away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.42 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagorets attack 2.43 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.93

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.17 + Zagorets defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Zagorets scores more
61%
level
22%
Gigant Saedinenie scores more
18%

Zagorets at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Zagorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zagorets vs Gigant Saedinenie

Zagorets beat Gigant Saedinenie 3-0 in Third League - Southeast on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Zagorets in Nova Zagora.