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Gigant Saedinenie vs Zagorets — Third League - Southeast 2018

Gigant Saedinenie
Gigant Saedinenie
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Zagorets
Zagorets
5/9/2026Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 34

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Gigant Saedinenie44%
×Draw26%
Zagorets30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gigant Saedinenie
1.48
Zagorets
1.16

Gigant Saedinenie creates 28% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 135 away

creates per match

Gigant Saedinenie
1.83
Zagorets
1.57

allows per match

Gigant Saedinenie
0.74
Zagorets
1.14

finishing

Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par
Zagorets+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gigant Saedinenie ↓

Zagorets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gigant Saedinenie or draw
70%
Gigant Saedinenie or Zagorets
74%
Draw or Zagorets
56%

Winning margin

Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+
22%
Zagorets wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals
77%
Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals
43%
Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals
19%
Zagorets 1+ goals
69%
Zagorets 2+ goals
32%
Zagorets 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)
60%
Zagorets (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gigant Saedinenie at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.74 · 135 matches

Zagorets away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.83 + Zagorets defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.48

Zagorets attack 1.57 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gigant Saedinenie scores more
44%
level
26%
Zagorets scores more
30%

Gigant Saedinenie at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gigant Saedinenie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Gigant Saedinenie 4–2 Zagorets

Gigant Saedinenie beat Zagorets 4-2 in Third League - Southeast on May 9, 2026.