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Zagorets vs FK Svilengrad — Third League - Southeast 2018

Zagorets
Zagorets
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FK Svilengrad
FK Svilengrad
10/9/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 11Stadion Zagorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Zagorets68%
×Draw18%
FK Svilengrad14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagorets
2.41
FK Svilengrad
0.99

Zagorets creates 143% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 18 away

creates per match

Zagorets
2.43
FK Svilengrad
1.28

allows per match

Zagorets
0.70
FK Svilengrad
2.39

finishing

Zagorets+0.00on par
FK Svilengrad+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagorets ↓

FK Svilengrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Zagorets or draw
86%
Zagorets or FK Svilengrad
82%
Draw or FK Svilengrad
32%

Winning margin

Zagorets wins by 2+
46%
FK Svilengrad wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Zagorets 1+ goals
91%
Zagorets 2+ goals
69%
Zagorets 3+ goals
43%
FK Svilengrad 1+ goals
63%
FK Svilengrad 2+ goals
26%
FK Svilengrad 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zagorets (draw refunded)
83%
FK Svilengrad (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagorets at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.70 · 136 matches

FK Svilengrad away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagorets attack 2.43 + FK Svilengrad defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.41

FK Svilengrad attack 1.28 + Zagorets defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Zagorets scores more
68%
level
18%
FK Svilengrad scores more
14%

Zagorets at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Zagorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zagorets vs FK Svilengrad

Zagorets beat FK Svilengrad 1-0 in Third League - Southeast on October 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Zagorets in Nova Zagora.