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Zagorets vs Botev Plovdiv II — Third League - Southeast 2018

Zagorets
Zagorets
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Botev Plovdiv II
Botev Plovdiv II
9/23/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 8Stadion Zagorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zagorets55%
×Draw23%
Botev Plovdiv II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagorets
1.85
Botev Plovdiv II
1.08

Zagorets creates 71% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 19 away

creates per match

Zagorets
2.43
Botev Plovdiv II
1.47

allows per match

Zagorets
0.70
Botev Plovdiv II
1.26

finishing

Zagorets+0.00on par
Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagorets ↓

Botev Plovdiv II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Zagorets or draw
78%
Zagorets or Botev Plovdiv II
77%
Draw or Botev Plovdiv II
45%

Winning margin

Zagorets wins by 2+
32%
Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zagorets 1+ goals
84%
Zagorets 2+ goals
55%
Zagorets 3+ goals
28%
Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals
66%
Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals
29%
Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zagorets (draw refunded)
72%
Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagorets at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.70 · 136 matches

Botev Plovdiv II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagorets attack 2.43 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.85

Botev Plovdiv II attack 1.47 + Zagorets defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Zagorets scores more
55%
level
23%
Botev Plovdiv II scores more
22%

Zagorets at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Zagorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zagorets 1 – 2 Botev Plovdiv II

Botev Plovdiv II beat Zagorets 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Zagorets in Nova Zagora.