Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zagorets vs Borislav 2009 — Third League - Southeast 2018

Zagorets
Zagorets
FT
7 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Borislav 2009
Borislav 2009
5/7/2022Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 30Stadion Zagorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Zagorets74%
×Draw16%
Borislav 200910%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagorets
2.48
Borislav 2009
0.80

Zagorets creates 210% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 79 away

creates per match

Zagorets
2.43
Borislav 2009
0.91

allows per match

Zagorets
0.70
Borislav 2009
2.52

finishing

Zagorets+0.00on par
Borislav 2009+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagorets ↓

Borislav 2009 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Zagorets or draw
90%
Zagorets or Borislav 2009
84%
Draw or Borislav 2009
26%

Winning margin

Zagorets wins by 2+
51%
Borislav 2009 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Zagorets 1+ goals
92%
Zagorets 2+ goals
70%
Zagorets 3+ goals
44%
Borislav 2009 1+ goals
55%
Borislav 2009 2+ goals
19%
Borislav 2009 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zagorets (draw refunded)
88%
Borislav 2009 (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagorets at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.70 · 136 matches

Borislav 2009 away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.52 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagorets attack 2.43 + Borislav 2009 defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.48

Borislav 2009 attack 0.91 + Zagorets defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Zagorets scores more
74%
level
16%
Borislav 2009 scores more
10%

Zagorets at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Zagorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zagorets vs Borislav 2009

Zagorets beat Borislav 2009 7-0 in Third League - Southeast on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Zagorets in Nova Zagora.