Zagorets 4–0 Beroe II: Result & Stats

Zagorets

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Beroe II

3/2/2024

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 22Stadion Zagorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Zagorets77%

×Draw15%

Beroe II8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZagoretsExpected goals in this matchBeroe II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.60

0.73

Zagorets

2.60

Beroe II

0.73

Zagorets creates 256% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 55 away

2.43

creates per match

0.76

0.70

allows per match

2.78

creates per match

Zagorets

2.43

Beroe II

0.76

allows per match

Zagorets

0.70

Beroe II

2.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zagorets+0.00on par

Beroe II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagorets ↓

Beroe II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Zagorets or draw

92%

Zagorets or Beroe II

85%

Draw or Beroe II

23%

Winning margin

Zagorets wins by 2+

55%

Beroe II wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Zagorets 1+ goals

92%

Zagorets 2+ goals

73%

Zagorets 3+ goals

47%

Beroe II 1+ goals

52%

Beroe II 2+ goals

17%

Beroe II 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Zagorets (draw refunded)

90%

Beroe II (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagorets at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.70 · 136 matches

Beroe II away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagorets attack 2.43 + Beroe II defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.60

Beroe II attack 0.76 + Zagorets defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Zagorets scores more

77%

level

15%

Beroe II scores more

8%

Zagorets at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Zagorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff