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Zagorec vs Zrinski Jurjevac — Second NL 2022

Zagorec
Zagorec
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zrinski Jurjevac
Zrinski Jurjevac
K. Stiperski 12'
3/25/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 20ŠRC Podgora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zagorec26%
×Draw26%
Zrinski Jurjevac47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagorec
1.02
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.46

Zrinski Jurjevac creates 43% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

creates per match

Zagorec
1.25
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.53

allows per match

Zagorec
1.38
Zrinski Jurjevac
0.80

finishing

Zagorec+0.00on par
Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagorec ↓

Zrinski Jurjevac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Zagorec or draw
53%
Zagorec or Zrinski Jurjevac
74%
Draw or Zrinski Jurjevac
74%

Winning margin

Zagorec wins by 2+
10%
Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Zagorec 1+ goals
64%
Zagorec 2+ goals
27%
Zagorec 3+ goals
8%
Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals
77%
Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals
43%
Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Zagorec (draw refunded)
36%
Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagorec at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Zrinski Jurjevac away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagorec attack 1.25 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.02

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 1.53 + Zagorec defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Zagorec scores more
26%
level
26%
Zrinski Jurjevac scores more
47%

Zrinski Jurjevac at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Zrinski Jurjevac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
K. Stiperski
35'
D. Condric

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zagorec vs Zrinski Jurjevac

Zagorec beat Zrinski Jurjevac 1-0 in Second NL on March 25, 2023.

Goals: K. Stiperski (12').

The match was played at ŠRC Podgora in Krapina.