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Zagorec vs Trnje — League #216 2026

Zagorec
Zagorec
FT
0 – 3
Trnje
Trnje
6/5/2021League #216League #216 · Center - 33ŠRC Podgora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Zagorec29%
×Draw23%
Trnje48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagorec
1.33
Trnje
1.79

Trnje creates 35% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Zagorec
1.67
Trnje
2.25

allows per match

Zagorec
1.33
Trnje
1.00

finishing

Zagorec+0.00on par
Trnje+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagorec ↓

Trnje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Zagorec or draw
52%
Zagorec or Trnje
77%
Draw or Trnje
71%

Winning margin

Zagorec wins by 2+
12%
Trnje wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Zagorec 1+ goals
74%
Zagorec 2+ goals
38%
Zagorec 3+ goals
15%
Trnje 1+ goals
83%
Trnje 2+ goals
53%
Trnje 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Zagorec (draw refunded)
37%
Trnje (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagorec at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Trnje away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagorec attack 1.67 + Trnje defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Trnje attack 2.25 + Zagorec defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Zagorec scores more
29%
level
23%
Trnje scores more
48%

Trnje at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Trnje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zagorec 0 – 3 Trnje

Trnje beat Zagorec 3-0 in League #216 on June 5, 2021.

The match was played at ŠRC Podgora in Krapina.