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Zagorec vs Krk — Second NL 2022

Zagorec
Zagorec
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Krk
Krk
6/11/2023Second NLSecond NL · Relegation RoundŠRC Podgora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Zagorec46%
×Draw27%
Krk27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagorec
1.41
Krk
1.00

Zagorec creates 41% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Zagorec
1.25
Krk
0.63

allows per match

Zagorec
1.38
Krk
1.56

finishing

Zagorec+0.00on par
Krk+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagorec ↓

Krk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Zagorec or draw
73%
Zagorec or Krk
73%
Draw or Krk
54%

Winning margin

Zagorec wins by 2+
22%
Krk wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zagorec 1+ goals
76%
Zagorec 2+ goals
41%
Zagorec 3+ goals
17%
Krk 1+ goals
63%
Krk 2+ goals
26%
Krk 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zagorec (draw refunded)
63%
Krk (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagorec at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Krk away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagorec attack 1.25 + Krk defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Krk attack 0.63 + Zagorec defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zagorec scores more
46%
level
27%
Krk scores more
27%

Zagorec at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zagorec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zagorec 0 – 0 Krk

Zagorec and Krk drew 0-0 in Second NL on June 11, 2023.

The match was played at ŠRC Podgora in Krapina.