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Zagorec vs HAŠK — League #216 2026

Zagorec
Zagorec
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
HAŠK
HAŠK
4/26/2025League #216League #216 · Center - 24ŠRC Podgora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Zagorec53%
×Draw24%
HAŠK23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagorec
1.71
HAŠK
1.04

Zagorec creates 64% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 21 away

creates per match

Zagorec
1.67
HAŠK
0.76

allows per match

Zagorec
1.33
HAŠK
1.76

finishing

Zagorec+0.00on par
HAŠK+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagorec ↓

HAŠK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Zagorec or draw
77%
Zagorec or HAŠK
76%
Draw or HAŠK
47%

Winning margin

Zagorec wins by 2+
29%
HAŠK wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zagorec 1+ goals
82%
Zagorec 2+ goals
51%
Zagorec 3+ goals
24%
HAŠK 1+ goals
65%
HAŠK 2+ goals
28%
HAŠK 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zagorec (draw refunded)
70%
HAŠK (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagorec at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

HAŠK away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagorec attack 1.67 + HAŠK defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.71

HAŠK attack 0.76 + Zagorec defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Zagorec scores more
53%
level
24%
HAŠK scores more
23%

Zagorec at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Zagorec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #216: Zagorec 3–1 HAŠK

Zagorec beat HAŠK 3-1 in League #216 on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at ŠRC Podgora in Krapina.