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Zagorec vs Grobničan Čavle — Second NL 2022

Zagorec
Zagorec
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Grobničan Čavle
Grobničan Čavle
6/3/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 30ŠRC Podgora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Zagorec47%
×Draw25%
Grobničan Čavle28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagorec
1.59
Grobničan Čavle
1.18

Zagorec creates 35% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 60 away

creates per match

Zagorec
1.25
Grobničan Čavle
0.98

allows per match

Zagorec
1.38
Grobničan Čavle
1.93

finishing

Zagorec+0.00on par
Grobničan Čavle+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagorec ↓

Grobničan Čavle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Zagorec or draw
72%
Zagorec or Grobničan Čavle
75%
Draw or Grobničan Čavle
53%

Winning margin

Zagorec wins by 2+
24%
Grobničan Čavle wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zagorec 1+ goals
80%
Zagorec 2+ goals
47%
Zagorec 3+ goals
21%
Grobničan Čavle 1+ goals
69%
Grobničan Čavle 2+ goals
33%
Grobničan Čavle 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Zagorec (draw refunded)
62%
Grobničan Čavle (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagorec at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Grobničan Čavle away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagorec attack 1.25 + Grobničan Čavle defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.59

Grobničan Čavle attack 0.98 + Zagorec defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Zagorec scores more
47%
level
25%
Grobničan Čavle scores more
28%

Zagorec at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Zagorec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zagorec vs Grobničan Čavle

Grobničan Čavle beat Zagorec 2-1 in Second NL on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at ŠRC Podgora in Krapina.