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Zagora vs Zmaj Makarska — Third NL - Jug 2019

Zagora
Zagora
FT
3 – 0
Zmaj Makarska
Zmaj Makarska
3/23/2024Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 20Stadion Borovište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Zagora74%
×Draw16%
Zmaj Makarska10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagora
2.45
Zmaj Makarska
0.76

Zagora creates 222% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 78 away

creates per match

Zagora
2.68
Zmaj Makarska
0.64

allows per match

Zagora
0.88
Zmaj Makarska
2.21

finishing

Zagora+0.00on par
Zmaj Makarska+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagora ↓

Zmaj Makarska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Zagora or draw
90%
Zagora or Zmaj Makarska
84%
Draw or Zmaj Makarska
26%

Winning margin

Zagora wins by 2+
51%
Zmaj Makarska wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Zagora 1+ goals
91%
Zagora 2+ goals
70%
Zagora 3+ goals
44%
Zmaj Makarska 1+ goals
53%
Zmaj Makarska 2+ goals
18%
Zmaj Makarska 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Zagora (draw refunded)
88%
Zmaj Makarska (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagora at home — creates 2.68, concedes 0.88 · 102 matches

Zmaj Makarska away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.21 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagora attack 2.68 + Zmaj Makarska defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.45

Zmaj Makarska attack 0.64 + Zagora defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Zagora scores more
74%
level
16%
Zmaj Makarska scores more
10%

Zagora at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Zagora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Zagora 3–0 Zmaj Makarska

Zagora beat Zmaj Makarska 3-0 in Third NL - Jug on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Borovište in Unešić.