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Zagora vs Vodice — Third NL - Jug 2019

Zagora
Zagora
FT
2 – 1
Vodice
Vodice
9/14/2024Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 4Stadion Borovište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Zagora71%
×Draw17%
Vodice12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagora
2.42
Vodice
0.90

Zagora creates 169% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

creates per match

Zagora
2.68
Vodice
0.92

allows per match

Zagora
0.88
Vodice
2.17

finishing

Zagora+0.00on par
Vodice+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagora ↓

Vodice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Zagora or draw
88%
Zagora or Vodice
83%
Draw or Vodice
29%

Winning margin

Zagora wins by 2+
48%
Vodice wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Zagora 1+ goals
91%
Zagora 2+ goals
69%
Zagora 3+ goals
43%
Vodice 1+ goals
59%
Vodice 2+ goals
23%
Vodice 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Zagora (draw refunded)
85%
Vodice (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagora at home — creates 2.68, concedes 0.88 · 102 matches

Vodice away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.17 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagora attack 2.68 + Vodice defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.42

Vodice attack 0.92 + Zagora defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Zagora scores more
71%
level
17%
Vodice scores more
12%

Zagora at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Zagora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zagora 2 – 1 Vodice

Zagora beat Vodice 2-1 in Third NL - Jug on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Borovište in Unešić.