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Zagora vs Otok — Third NL - Jug 2019

Zagora
Zagora
FT
6 – 2
Otok
Otok
3/13/2021Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 17Stadion Borovište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Zagora75%
×Draw15%
Otok10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagora
2.69
Otok
0.88

Zagora creates 206% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 33 away

creates per match

Zagora
2.68
Otok
0.88

allows per match

Zagora
0.88
Otok
2.70

finishing

Zagora+0.00on par
Otok+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagora ↓

Otok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Zagora or draw
90%
Zagora or Otok
85%
Draw or Otok
25%

Winning margin

Zagora wins by 2+
54%
Otok wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Zagora 1+ goals
93%
Zagora 2+ goals
74%
Zagora 3+ goals
49%
Otok 1+ goals
59%
Otok 2+ goals
22%
Otok 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Zagora (draw refunded)
88%
Otok (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagora at home — creates 2.68, concedes 0.88 · 102 matches

Otok away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.70 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagora attack 2.68 + Otok defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 2.69

Otok attack 0.88 + Zagora defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Zagora scores more
75%
level
15%
Otok scores more
10%

Zagora at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Zagora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zagora vs Otok

Zagora beat Otok 6-2 in Third NL - Jug on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Borovište in Unešić.