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Zagora vs HNK Hajduk Split II — Third NL - Jug 2019

Zagora
Zagora
FT
5 – 0
HNK Hajduk Split II
HNK Hajduk Split II
11/25/2023Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 15Stadion Borovište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zagora78%
×Draw13%
HNK Hajduk Split II8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagora
2.88
HNK Hajduk Split II
0.84

Zagora creates 243% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 15 away

creates per match

Zagora
2.68
HNK Hajduk Split II
0.80

allows per match

Zagora
0.88
HNK Hajduk Split II
3.07

finishing

Zagora+0.00on par
HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagora ↓

HNK Hajduk Split II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Zagora or draw
92%
Zagora or HNK Hajduk Split II
87%
Draw or HNK Hajduk Split II
22%

Winning margin

Zagora wins by 2+
58%
HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Zagora 1+ goals
94%
Zagora 2+ goals
78%
Zagora 3+ goals
54%
HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals
57%
HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals
21%
HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zagora (draw refunded)
90%
HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagora at home — creates 2.68, concedes 0.88 · 102 matches

HNK Hajduk Split II away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagora attack 2.68 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.88

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 0.80 + Zagora defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Zagora scores more
78%
level
13%
HNK Hajduk Split II scores more
8%

Zagora at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Zagora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zagora vs HNK Hajduk Split II

Zagora beat HNK Hajduk Split II 5-0 in Third NL - Jug on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Borovište in Unešić.