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Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Zagłębie Lubin II — II Liga - East 2019

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Zagłębie Lubin II
Zagłębie Lubin II
3/8/2025II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 21ArcelorMittal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec42%
×Draw23%
Zagłębie Lubin II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.68
Zagłębie Lubin II
1.52

Zaglebie Sosnowiec creates 11% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 52 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.38
Zagłębie Lubin II
1.21

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.82
Zagłębie Lubin II
1.98

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par
Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Zagłębie Lubin II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw
65%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Zagłębie Lubin II
77%
Draw or Zagłębie Lubin II
58%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
21%
Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
81%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
50%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
24%
Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals
78%
Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals
45%
Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
54%
Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

Zagłębie Lubin II away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.98 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.38 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.68

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 1.21 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
42%
level
23%
Zagłębie Lubin II scores more
35%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zaglebie Sosnowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3–1 Zagłębie Lubin II

Zaglebie Sosnowiec beat Zagłębie Lubin II 3-1 in II Liga - East on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at ArcelorMittal Park in Sosnowiec.