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Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Wigry Suwałki — I Liga 2018

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Wigry Suwałki
Wigry Suwałki
11/9/2019I LigaI Liga · Round 17Stadion Ludowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec45%
×Draw26%
Wigry Suwałki29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.44
Wigry Suwałki
1.09

Zaglebie Sosnowiec creates 32% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 30 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.16
Wigry Suwałki
0.80

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.39
Wigry Suwałki
1.73

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par
Wigry Suwałki+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Wigry Suwałki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw
71%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Wigry Suwałki
74%
Draw or Wigry Suwałki
55%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
22%
Wigry Suwałki wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
76%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
42%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
18%
Wigry Suwałki 1+ goals
66%
Wigry Suwałki 2+ goals
30%
Wigry Suwałki 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
61%
Wigry Suwałki (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

Wigry Suwałki away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.16 + Wigry Suwałki defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.44

Wigry Suwałki attack 0.80 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
45%
level
26%
Wigry Suwałki scores more
29%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Zaglebie Sosnowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Wigry Suwałki

Zaglebie Sosnowiec beat Wigry Suwałki 2-0 in I Liga on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Ludowy in Sosnowiec.