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Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Starowice Dolne — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Starowice Dolne
Starowice Dolne
2/13/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec27%
×Draw20%
Starowice Dolne53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.68
Starowice Dolne
2.38

Starowice Dolne creates 42% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.69
Starowice Dolne
2.67

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
2.08
Starowice Dolne
1.67

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par
Starowice Dolne+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Starowice Dolne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw
47%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Starowice Dolne
80%
Draw or Starowice Dolne
73%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
13%
Starowice Dolne wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
81%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
50%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
24%
Starowice Dolne 1+ goals
91%
Starowice Dolne 2+ goals
68%
Starowice Dolne 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
34%
Starowice Dolne (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Starowice Dolne away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.69 + Starowice Dolne defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.68

Starowice Dolne attack 2.67 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
27%
level
20%
Starowice Dolne scores more
53%

Starowice Dolne at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Starowice Dolne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Starowice Dolne

Starowice Dolne beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 13, 2026.