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Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Stal Rzeszów — I Liga 2018

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stal Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
4/23/2024I LigaI Liga · Round 29ArcelorMittal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec41%
×Draw26%
Stal Rzeszów34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.45
Stal Rzeszów
1.29

Zaglebie Sosnowiec creates 12% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 69 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.16
Stal Rzeszów
1.19

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.39
Stal Rzeszów
1.74

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par
Stal Rzeszów+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Stal Rzeszów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw
66%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Stal Rzeszów
74%
Draw or Stal Rzeszów
59%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
20%
Stal Rzeszów wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
77%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
42%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
18%
Stal Rzeszów 1+ goals
72%
Stal Rzeszów 2+ goals
37%
Stal Rzeszów 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
55%
Stal Rzeszów (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

Stal Rzeszów away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.16 + Stal Rzeszów defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.45

Stal Rzeszów attack 1.19 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
41%
level
26%
Stal Rzeszów scores more
34%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zaglebie Sosnowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Stal Rzeszów

Stal Rzeszów beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1-0 in I Liga on April 23, 2024.

The match was played at ArcelorMittal Park in Sosnowiec.