Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Slask Wroclaw — Ekstraklasa 2026

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Slask Wroclaw
Slask Wroclaw
G. Migas 90'
O. Nowak 50'
M. Radecki 84'
M. Cholewiak 59', 26'
W. Golla 57'
5/5/2019EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Relegation Round - 4Stadion Ludowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec37%
×Draw23%
Slask Wroclaw40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.64
Slask Wroclaw
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 118 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.89
Slask Wroclaw
1.12

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
2.33
Slask Wroclaw
1.39

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par
Slask Wroclaw+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Slask Wroclaw →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw
60%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Slask Wroclaw
77%
Draw or Slask Wroclaw
63%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
18%
Slask Wroclaw wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
81%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
49%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
23%
Slask Wroclaw 1+ goals
82%
Slask Wroclaw 2+ goals
52%
Slask Wroclaw 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
48%
Slask Wroclaw (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.33 · 18 matches

Slask Wroclaw away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.89 + Slask Wroclaw defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.64

Slask Wroclaw attack 1.12 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
37%
level
23%
Slask Wroclaw scores more
40%

Slask Wroclaw at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Slask Wroclaw will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
M. Cholewiak↳ R. Pich
38'
L. Greššák← M. Możdżeń
45'
Sebastian Milewski
46'
V. Sanogo← G. Gabedava
50'
O. Nowak↳ V. Sanogo
54'
Krzysztof Mączyński
57'
W. Golla
59'
M. Cholewiak↳ M. Chrapek
62'
Michael Heinloth
63'
G. Ivanishvili← M. Heinloth
71'
M. Radecki← K. Mączyński
82'
Lukáš Greššák
82'
D. Gaska← R. Pich
84'
M. Radecki↳ D. Gaska
88'
A. Piech← M. Robak
90'
G. Migas

Possession

52%Zaglebie

Shots

8Zaglebie

Statistics

ZaglebieSlask
Overview
52%Possession48%
8Total Shots11
6Corners6
18Fouls20
Shots
8Total Shots11
4On Target8
4Off Target3
Passing
52%Possession48%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
18Fouls20
3Yellow Cards1
2Offsides4

Ekstraklasa: Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2–4 Slask Wroclaw

Slask Wroclaw beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 4-2 in Ekstraklasa on May 5, 2019.

Goals: M. Cholewiak (26', 59'), O. Nowak (50'), W. Golla (57'), M. Radecki (84'), G. Migas (90').

Zaglebie Sosnowiec controlled possession (52%) and registered 8 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadion Ludowy in Sosnowiec.