Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1–4 Śląsk Wrocław II

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Śląsk Wrocław II

2/28/2026

II Liga - East · Round 21ArcelorMittal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec34%

×Draw23%

Śląsk Wrocław II43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie SosnowiecExpected goals in this matchŚląsk Wrocław II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.75

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.54

Śląsk Wrocław II

1.75

Śląsk Wrocław II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 69 away

1.38

creates per match

1.68

1.82

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.38

Śląsk Wrocław II

1.68

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.82

Śląsk Wrocław II

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Śląsk Wrocław II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Śląsk Wrocław II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw

57%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Śląsk Wrocław II

77%

Draw or Śląsk Wrocław II

66%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

16%

Śląsk Wrocław II wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

79%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

45%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

20%

Śląsk Wrocław II 1+ goals

83%

Śląsk Wrocław II 2+ goals

52%

Śląsk Wrocław II 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

44%

Śląsk Wrocław II (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

Śląsk Wrocław II away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.71 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.38 + Śląsk Wrocław II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.54

Śląsk Wrocław II attack 1.68 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

34%

level

23%

Śląsk Wrocław II scores more

43%

Śląsk Wrocław II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Śląsk Wrocław II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff