Zaglebie Sosnowiec 0–2 Resovia Rzeszów

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Resovia Rzeszów

G. Płatek 52'

M. Kuczałek 22'

11/4/2020

I Liga · Round 9Stadion Ludowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec40%

×Draw26%

Resovia Rzeszów34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie SosnowiecExpected goals in this matchResovia Rzeszów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.29

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.42

Resovia Rzeszów

1.29

Zaglebie Sosnowiec creates 10% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 68 away

1.16

creates per match

1.19

1.39

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.16

Resovia Rzeszów

1.19

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.39

Resovia Rzeszów

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Resovia Rzeszów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Resovia Rzeszów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw

66%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Resovia Rzeszów

74%

Draw or Resovia Rzeszów

60%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

19%

Resovia Rzeszów wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

76%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

41%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

17%

Resovia Rzeszów 1+ goals

72%

Resovia Rzeszów 2+ goals

37%

Resovia Rzeszów 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

54%

Resovia Rzeszów (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

Resovia Rzeszów away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.16 + Resovia Rzeszów defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.42

Resovia Rzeszów attack 1.19 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

40%

level

26%

Resovia Rzeszów scores more

34%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zaglebie Sosnowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

22'

39'

52'

59'

F. Karbowy← N. Korzeniecki

59'

P. Małecki← M. Kieca

69'

D. Rogalski← C. Demianiuk

70'

J. Sangowski← K. Antonik

75'

M. Hebel← G. Płatek

76'

O. Nowak← Gonçalo Gregório

84'

M. Kantor

84'

B. Kiełbasa← S. Feret

87'

M. Zapytowski

90+1'

J. Sangowski

Zaglebie

Resovia

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: K. Dębek

59'▲F. Karbowy←▼N. Korzeniecki

59'▲P. Małecki←▼M. Kieca

70'▲J. Sangowski←▼K. Antonik

76'▲O. Nowak←▼Gonçalo Gregório

Zaglebie Sosnowiec substitutes

KarbowyMałeckiSangowskiNowak

Manager: S. Grabowski

69'▲D. Rogalski←▼C. Demianiuk

75'▲M. Hebel←▼G. Płatek

84'▲B. Kiełbasa←▼S. Feret

Resovia Rzeszów substitutes

RogalskiHebelKiełbasa

Match Recap: Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Resovia Rzeszów

Resovia Rzeszów beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2-0 in I Liga on November 4, 2020.

Goals: M. Kuczałek (22'), G. Płatek (52').

The match was played at Stadion Ludowy in Sosnowiec.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Resovia Rzeszów — I Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Resovia Rzeszów