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Resovia Rzeszów vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec — I Liga 2018

Resovia Rzeszów
Resovia Rzeszów
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
2/25/2024I LigaI Liga · Round 21Stadion Stal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Resovia Rzeszów41%
×Draw28%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Resovia Rzeszów
1.25
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.06

Resovia Rzeszów creates 18% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 85 away

creates per match

Resovia Rzeszów
1.03
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.94

allows per match

Resovia Rzeszów
1.18
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.48

finishing

Resovia Rzeszów+0.00on par
Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Resovia Rzeszów ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Resovia Rzeszów or draw
69%
Resovia Rzeszów or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
72%
Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
59%

Winning margin

Resovia Rzeszów wins by 2+
18%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Resovia Rzeszów 1+ goals
71%
Resovia Rzeszów 2+ goals
36%
Resovia Rzeszów 3+ goals
13%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
65%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
29%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Resovia Rzeszów (draw refunded)
56%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Resovia Rzeszów at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.48 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Resovia Rzeszów attack 1.03 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.25

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 0.94 + Resovia Rzeszów defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Resovia Rzeszów scores more
41%
level
28%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
31%

Resovia Rzeszów at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Resovia Rzeszów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Resovia Rzeszów 1–0 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Resovia Rzeszów beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1-0 in I Liga on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Stal in Rzeszów.