Zaglebie Sosnowiec 0–2 Resovia Rzeszów

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

FT

0 – 2

Resovia Rzeszów

8/22/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Ludowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec32%

×Draw22%

Resovia Rzeszów46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie SosnowiecExpected goals in this matchResovia Rzeszów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.98

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.61

Resovia Rzeszów

1.98

Resovia Rzeszów creates 23% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

1.56

creates per match

1.83

2.13

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.56

Resovia Rzeszów

1.83

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

2.13

Resovia Rzeszów

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Resovia Rzeszów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Resovia Rzeszów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw

54%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Resovia Rzeszów

78%

Draw or Resovia Rzeszów

68%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

15%

Resovia Rzeszów wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

80%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

48%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

22%

Resovia Rzeszów 1+ goals

86%

Resovia Rzeszów 2+ goals

59%

Resovia Rzeszów 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

41%

Resovia Rzeszów (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.13 · 16 matches

Resovia Rzeszów away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.56 + Resovia Rzeszów defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

Resovia Rzeszów attack 1.83 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

32%

level

22%

Resovia Rzeszów scores more

46%

Resovia Rzeszów at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Resovia Rzeszów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff